The VIX Regime Flip: What Changes for Same-Day Options When 30-Day Implied Vol Wakes Up Mid-Selloff
Yesterday the argument was that a calm VIX hid the real risk in dispersion and intraday moves. Today the VIX woke up — jumping about 8% to ~18 as the SOX fell into a bear market. When 30-day implied volatility rises mid-selloff, the same-day options environment flips regimes: premium gets richer, the term structure can invert, and moves start to trend instead of mean-revert. Here's what changes, and why the strategies that worked in the cheap-vol regime are the ones that break in this one.