Crowded-Trade Unwinds: Why Positioning, Not Fundamentals, Drives the Violent Moves
When everyone crowds into the same trade, the position itself becomes a source of risk. The unwind, when it comes, is driven by forced selling rather than changed conviction, which is why it overshoots, and why the snapback that follows overshoots too. Understanding that a violent round-trip can be about positioning rather than fundamentals is the key to not mistaking a deleveraging event for a verdict on value.