The Headline Round-Trip: Why Trading Unconfirmed Catalysts Is a Trap in Both Directions
Some catalysts recur: the same headline, the same market reaction, the same reversal, over and over. When a market keeps round-tripping on a diplomatic story that one of the named parties will not even confirm, both chasing the move and fading it have proven costly. This is about the specific danger of trading on catalysts you cannot verify, drawn from a real, repeating example, and why the disciplined response is neither to chase nor to fade but to size for uncertainty.