The Narrative Trap: When a Great Story Meets a Coin-Flip Event
Some of the most dangerous setups in trading are the ones that come with a compelling story. When a company has a clean, intuitive narrative heading into a binary earnings event, the story invites conviction, while the options market often tells a very different tale of genuine two-sided uncertainty. This is about the gap between a satisfying narrative and what the market is actually pricing, and why the better the story, the more discipline the moment demands.