Melting Up Into a Jobs Friday: The Case for Sizing Down Into a Binary Print
A market drifting higher into a jobs Friday is not calm; it is exposed. The July payrolls print is a binary event whose weight comes from what it does to the September rate decision, and a market that has rallied on a rate-path assumption is sitting on exactly what that print can confirm or overturn. This is the risk-management case for sizing down into a scheduled number you cannot handicap.