Eight Hours, One Sentence: Anatomy of a Geopolitical Gap-and-Fade
Brent gapped nearly 4% overnight to break $90 and S&P futures were down about 1% at 4 a.m. By the opening bell, crude had pared to $88 and stocks were higher. The catalyst was one conditional sentence from an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman. Nothing physical improved — shipping is still disrupted, the blockade is still on, strikes are continuing. What moved was the premium, not the fundamentals, and the distinction is the most useful thing a trader can take from the session.